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Sunday Night Football Preview, Patriots visit Steel City
2010-11-12

Sportsbook.com Patriots vs. Steelers Betting Lines: Pittsburgh -4.5, Total: 45

Two of the NFL’s best teams meet up in the Sunday night game. The Patriots have been winning with good situational football, but their offense lacks the kind of big-play threat (like Randy Moss) that can capitalize against a Steelers D that is excellent, yet susceptible to giving up the big play.

The Pats young defense is in disarray, exploited by Peyton Hillis last week for 184 rushing yards and two scores in the 34-14 loss at Cleveland. During the Ben Roethlisberger era, Pittsburgh has had success against Bill Belichick defenses that had more talent, averaging 25.4 PPG in the past five meetings. New England got a scare this week as QB Tom Brady missed Wednesday’s practice with a sprained foot, but he is expected to start Sunday night.

New England has lost back-to-back games only twice since 2003. In 21 games following an in-season loss, Brady has been excellent, completing 67 percent of his passes and throwing for 42 touchdowns and just 10 interceptions. This equates to a gaudy 105.4 passer rating. Brady has also dominated Pittsburgh in six career meetings with five wins, 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions. But Brady has lost some of his luster after Randy Moss was traded, throwing for only five touchdowns in four games. The team put up 32.8 PPG with Moss and is averaging a mere 22.0 PPG after he was traded.

This doesn’t seem to concern Sportsbook.com bettors as 66 percent of the early Patriots vs. Steelers point spread action is on New England.

Brady should be able to throw the football on Pittsburgh again, considering the Steelers have allowed 273 passing YPG this year. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was placed on injured reserve this week (quad), so New England replaced him with Shayne Graham who has made over 85 percent of his FG attempts in his career.

Pittsburgh continues to lead the NFL in scoring defense (15.4 PPG) and run defense (58.3 YPG). However, on the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ offensive line is beat up with OT Max Starks placed on injured reserve (neck) this week. Rookie center Maurkice Pouncey (leg) and G Chris Kemoeatu (knee) are also both hurting, but both expect to play Sunday night. Pittsburgh must be more careful with the football based on its six turnovers in the past three games.

The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight trips to Pittsburgh. Additionally, here are three more NFL betting trends uncovered at Sportsbook.com that indicates New England is the way to bet.

Play On - Road teams (NEW ENGLAND) - off a road loss, in November games. (41-11 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.8%, +28.9 units.

Bill Belichick is 29-9 ATS (76.3%, +19.1 Units) after having won 4 out of their last 5 games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 24.9, OPPONENT 16.3.

Belichick is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in road games after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of NEW ENGLAND. The average score was NEW ENGLAND 29.7, OPPONENT 17.3.

To bet on the Patriots vs. Steelers game or to check out the rest of NFL Week 10 betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com now.



NFLPS: Monday night football matches Cardinals, Titans
2010-08-23

The NFL preseason rolls on as a Monday night matchup between the Cardinals and Titans from Tennessee will wrap up the second full week of games. After tonight’s ESPN contest, just two weeks remain until the games start meaning something. Of course, if you bet Arizona (+4), Tennessee (-4), or either side of the current total at Sportsbook.com, 37, this game will certainly be meaningful to you. Let’s take a look at the game and see if we can’t uncover any betting edges.

Tennessee will look to even its pre-season record as they return home to face the Cardinals. Tennessee’s late rally came up short against Seattle, as the Titans fell 20-18 after being down by 13 at one point. Vince Young saw some light work, going 5-6 for 78 yards with an interception. The majority of the reps were split between Chris Simms and rookie Rusty Smith. Chris Johnson had seven yards on five carries including a touchdown, but the Titans were led on the ground by second-year man Javon Ringer who had seven carries for 60 yards.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, completed their late rally from 16 down in the fourth to beat Houston 19-16 in their preseason opener. Matt Leinart got the start for Arizona, going 6-7 for 49 yards, but the Cardinals were rallied by Derek Anderson and John Skelton, a rookie out of Fordham. The Cardinals found a way to win despite being out-gained both in the air, and on the ground by the Texans. Tonight’s game will be an important piece in the puzzle which will decide the eventual starting quarterback in Arizona come Week 1.

This FoxSheets system indicates to fade the Titans for Monday:

Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (TENNESSEE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in August games.

(50-23 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.5%, +24.7 units. Rating = 2*)

The straight up record of the team this system pertains to is : (35-38 over the last 10 seasons.)

The average line posted in these games was: Opponent favored by 4.8

The average score in these games was: Team 18.4, Opponent 19.6 (Average point differential = -1.3)

The number of games in which this system covered the spread by 7 or more points was 31 (41.9% of all games.)

The situation's record this season is: (1-1).

Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (8-1).

Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (19-9).

Since 1993 the situation's record is: (98-70).

The Cardinals could be aided tonight by the quarterback controversy, as both Leinart and Anderson will be looking for a good showing.

Regarding the total, the Titans have generally been an UNDER type of team under head coach Jeff Fisher historically, but that trend may be turning as they have gone OVER the total in six straight preseason contests.

Kickoff for Monday’s game is set for 8:05 PM ET and it can be seen on ESPN.


NFL: Can the Jets and Vikings win on the Money Line?
2010-01-21

Both New York and Minnesota are road underdogs in the Conference Championships on Sunday, yet each in their own way has proven to be a valuable play for the sports bettor. The postseason tournament has revisited yesteryear this season, as the two top seeds from each conference advanced to the conference titles games for the first time since 2004. However, if history has shown us anything, the higher seeded favorite not only fails to cover often in this round, but they lose outright. The last time two top seeds made it to the Super Bowl was the season of 1993. Since that time, on seven different occasions a matchup of the best from the NFC and AFC could have happened and not once did this occur. Betting on No.1 leaves a nasty mark at 5-9 against the spread, with seven outright losers, six from the AFC. This means bettors at Sportsbook.com could be in for a healthy return on investment in back one or both of the underdogs.

Confident New York rolling

The Jets are the bigger underdog at 7.5-points at Sportsbook.com and are +280 on the money line. Indianapolis has nobody to blame but itself for ending up with this opponent who really believes in itself. The Colts pulled many of the their top players against the Jets in Week 16 and New York stormed to a 26-6 second half, providing the momentum they needed to start winning. Make no mistake, coach Rex Ryan has this team believing they are every bit as good as the 85’ Bears and ‘00 Ravens, both defensive-oriented teams that won Super Bowls.

In analyzing the rosters of the two teams, take away Peyton Manning; a case could be made the Jets have a better starting roster. The Colts offensive line is merely average with Indy have no running game to speak of, saved by Manning’s ability to get rid the ball. No doubt Manning has the skill to pick apart any defense, but this is a unique Jets D, who creates relentless pressure from every angle imaginable and whose job this week is to make Manning miserable, leading to bad throws and possible picks.

The Jets are going to run the ball with Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene, as the duo, behind a talented offensive line, averages 4.5 yards per carry on 38 attempts per contest. Quarterback Mark Sanchez has played smartly in recent weeks and his confidence has been growing, and he has been making better throws especially once the second half arrives.

NFL playoff football has evolved into getting hot at the right time. The Flyboys have won and covered seven of eight and aren’t worried about playing a third straight game on the road, the Giants and Steelers have won Super Bowls in the last four years doing so.

Strong defensive teams allowing 14-18 points per game, against teams that allow 18 to 23 points per contest, after allowing 17 points or less in three straight times, are 44-18 on the money line.

Minnesota is Favre-ulous

It was a little shocking to see New Orleans as four-point favorites over Minnesota, since the Vikings appear to have a decidedly better defense. That said the Vikings have not been nearly as good away from the Metrodome this season, with a .500 record SU and ATS and haven’t won or covered a road game since Nov. 1 in Green Bay (0-3).

It would be foolish to dismiss Minnesota since this team is right where many thought they would be dating back to the middle of October. Brett Favre has been amazing. Scrap the grayish beard and flecks on the dome, he looks every bit the player that went to consecutive Super Bowls in the mid-90’s. Gone are the days of just throwing it up for grabs, simply testing his arm and coaches patience, trying to play Mission Impossible plays.

While New Orleans has offensive weapons all over the field, the Minnesota crew is hardly second-rate. Receivers like Sidney Rice are explosive and rookie Percy Harvin is a ticking time bomb that could detonate at any time. The Vikings offensive line and Adrian Peterson have seen a number of different defensive schemes, all designed to stop A.P.; nonetheless they have to be encouraged with the Saints permitting 4.6 yards per carry.

The strength of Minny’s defense is not in the secondary, however if the Vikings defensive line plays the same as they did against Dallas, it won’t matter again. Minnesota has four legitimate run stoppers and pass rushers on every play. The affects of defensive pressure have been on display in eight playoff games and if they can shake up Drew Brees, the possibilities start to open up.

This is the moment Favre yearned for and no doubt wants retribution for the NFC title game failure while with Green Bay two years ago. Teams that average 7.3 or more yards per pass attempt, against average passing defense (5.9-6.7 YPPA), after gaining eight or more passing yards an attempt in two straight games, are 37-12 on the money line the last five seasons. At +160, the Vikes are worth serious consideration.


NFL SELECTIVE ABOUT BETTING MORALITY?
2009-05-25

New moves may be lucrative, but dilute the moral positioning

One of online gambling's most implacable foes - the US National Football League - came under fire from Associated Press over the weekend for its latest moves to increase revenues for owners.

After years of moralising about the dangers to sport of allowing betting on games, the NFL is now allowing its team owners to position (for a cut of the action) team logos on state lottery scratch tickets despite boycott and legal threats directed at the governor of Delaware over his plans for a sports lottery (see previous InfoPowa reports).

The Patriots and the Redskins have been quick to jump into the new revenue stream, signing deals with the Massachusetts and Virginia state lotteries respectively.

The AP story comments that: "...the league that is so terrified of gambling that it refused to allow a Las Vegas commercial during the Super Bowl a few years back is now in the gambling business itself. Aware that it can sell only so many $300 tickets to its games, the NFL has figured out a way to get a cut of some of the biggest gambling operations around.

"No word yet on whether there will be [lottery] kiosks next to the beer stands at the stadiums, but that won't likely be far behind. The one thing the NFL does know how to do is promote its product."

The article considers the apparent hypocrisy of the League's position on the lottery logo projects following its opposition to the sports lottery in Delaware, which has been approved and signed off, and now awaits state Supreme Court guidance on what betting is permissible.

"That apparently crosses the line for the NFL, whose stance against betting on its games has always been a bit ironic considering gamblers helped found the league and the evolution of point spreads helped make it so wildly popular," the piece opines. "So attorneys for the League were in the courtroom the other day arguing before the Delaware Supreme Court that betting on NFL games should not be allowed.

"Their reasoning? Bettors might have too good a chance to win."

The Massachusetts State Lottery, where the Patriots tickets will be sold, already runs a Boston Red Sox game, which this year offers prizes of up to $1 million for 10 lucky buyers. The official odds show that one out of every 4.5 tickets is a winner. But odds of actually winning something over a player's original investment are more like one in eight because 10 percent of the payoffs merely refund the five dollar betting stake.

Associated Press sums up its report by commenting: "In the end, gambling is gambling. And now that the NFL is in the gambling business, it has lost its right to the moral high ground on the issue.

"Lotteries are the worst form of gambling imaginable. They prey on the weakest people and exploit their dreams.

"The next time the NFL screams about sports betting, remember who is sharing its bed."



NFL: Beware of Double Digit NFL Favorites (8:15 PM ET, NFL Network)
2008-11-21

Aside from the day of the week this game is being played, will anything be different from the first meeting between the Bengals and Steelers? Not unless Carson Palmer makes a miraculous recovery and suddenly starts at quarterback for Cincinnati having the same abilities as he possessed in 2005, the Bengals last trip to the postseason. He missed the Oct. 19 meeting when the Steelers crushed Cincinnati 38-10 at Paul Brown Stadium. On that day, the defense led by James Harrison, LaMarr Woodley and Lawrence Timmons met at Ryan Fitzpatrick’s helmet, sacking him seven times, along with numerous other “welcome” hits, as Palmer started nursing a sore right elbow.

Willie Parker of Pittsburgh should be a go unless his shoulder and/or knee received a failing grade following last Sunday’s 11-10 victory over San Diego at Heinz Field. He chipped in with 115 yards on 25 carries, while Mewelde Moore remained involved in the offense with five catches for 33 yards. Even though Parker won’t practice full-tilt in the days leading up to this game, Cincinnati’s steadily improving defense still won’t be too pleased to see him. Prior to missing Week 6, Parker had 682 yards and six touchdowns in the previous six meetings between these teams. A year ago he totaled 213 yards and one score as the Steelers swept the annual series they now lead 47-30 all-time. Food for thought is the home team is 2-11 ATS in this division rivalry.

Besides failing to protect Fitzpatrick in the first meeting, the Bengals couldn’t sustain drives. They were 4-for-16 on third-down conversions and Fitzpatrick averaged only 7.8 yards per completion. His longest pass went for just 19 yards to wide receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh, who has been his usual steady self with at least seven receptions in five straight games, including 12 in last week’s 13-13 tie with Philadelphia. Cincinnati is actually known in betting circles for playing well right now with 20-8 ATS record in road games in weeks 10 through 13.

Sportsbook.com has Pittsburgh as 11-point favorites, not a number you often seen on the board for football. It is interesting to note double digit favorites are 1-17 against the spread this year, with the Bengals having nabbed a pair of those wins. The total opened at 36.5 at many sportsbooks and has fallen to 34 during the week. Could it have anything to do with Cincy averaging 13.8 points a game and the Steelers being 90-17 ATS when they allow 14 or less points?

The Cincinnati defense has shown improvement of late, being more physical and aggressive, however that has been at home, on the road they have given up 27 points per game. The Bengals are 3-18 ATS away when facing a team with a .700 SU record or higher and that figure is sure to stay in the negative unless they can find a way to protect Fitzpatrick, since any life insurance company won’t touch him as many hits as he has been taking.

Pittsburgh needs to take the “park” out of Willie Parker and let him roam. After missing five games, Parker’s legs will be fresher than Charlize Theron on the red carpet, up against players that have 10 hard-hitting contests under their belts. The Steelers need to be mentally prepared on a short week against inferior opponent, even if they are in same division, as they are sporting 5-15 ATS mark as a favorite of 10 or more points, with average margin of victory under eight.

The always popular (?) NFL Network will have this Thursday night telecast starting at 8:15 Eastern and hopefully they have the sound mechanics solved, so it doesn’t sound like your listening to a local high school broadcast. Thursday road teams that were an underdog in last game are 5-19 ATS.

StatFox Forecaster – Pittsburgh covers
StatFox Power Line – Pittsburgh by 18
StatFox Outplay Factor- Pittsburgh by 16


NFL: Final Preseason Week Top Power Trends
2008-08-28

With the NFL Preseason about to conclude, here is a look at the best angles available for all the games over the next couple of days. These trends often end up having historical significance based on coaching and organizational preferences before the start of the regular season. Check out the latest lines for this week’s games by clicking on the LIVE ODDS link.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

-The Colts are 11-1 ATS after a loss by 10 or more points.

-The Colts are 12-3 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

-The Colts are 4-12 ATS in last 16 preseason encounters.

-The Bengals are 1-7 as underdogs if opponent is off double digit loss.

St. Louis at Kansas City

-The Rams are 5-18 ATS after playing a game at home.

Jacksonville at Washington

-The Redskins are 1-10 ATS in home games off one or more straight Overs.

Minnesota at Dallas

-The Cowboys are 10-0 Over when playing against a team with a losing record.

Tennessee at Green Bay

-The Titans are 11-0 Over in road games after one or more consecutive straight up losses.

Atlanta at Baltimore

-The Falcons are 9-1 Over after allowing nine points or less in last outing.

-The Ravens are 10-1 Under after gaining 150 or less passing yards in last game.

Chicago at Cleveland

-The Browns are 12-3 ATS in home games after playing a non-conference tilt.

-The Bears are 8-21 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason.

Miami at New Orleans

-The Saints are 8-20 ATS at the Super Dome in the preseason.

-The Dolphins are 2-9 ATS off exactly two SU and ATS wins.

Tampa Bay at Houston

-The Texans are 0-5 ATS in last contest of the preseason.

-The Texans are on 7-0 Over run in August games.

Carolina at Pittsburgh

-The Panthers are 2-7 ATS as underdogs.

-The Steelers are 8-0 Under playing on Thursday’s.

N.Y Jets at Philadelphia

-The Eagles are 1-7 ATS after back-to-back wins and covers.

Denver at Arizona

-The Broncos are 13-2 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite.

-The Broncos are 8-0 ATS in the final week of the preseason.

Oakland at Seattle

-The Raiders are 14-3 UNDER off two or more consecutive Unders.

-The Raiders are 10-1 Under off an upset loss as a favorite.